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Reasoning error · causal reasoning
Post hoc reasoning concludes that because event A occurred before event B, A caused B, without establishing that B depends on A rather than coincidence, background trends, regression to the mean or another cause.
Explore connections →Sequence matters, but sequence alone is not enough.
If symptoms fluctuate, many people start a remedy when symptoms are unusually bad. Improvement afterward may partly reflect ordinary recovery or regression toward the mean. Controlled comparisons exist to estimate that counterfactual.
Research basis
Review of causal illusions showing how high outcome frequency and biased exposure to cause-present cases can create false causal impressions.
Investigation ↔ Learn
The 52-year Calendar Round follows mathematically from meshing 260-day and 365-day counts and carried major renewal and cosmic-risk symbolism. That ritual anxiety is real, but current scholarship does not establish that the cycle originated from repeated physical catastrophes every 52 years.
Many Nazca figures are visually striking from above, but archaeological evidence places them in a lived ritual landscape connected to paths, gathering places and ground-level movement. Aerial visibility is not evidence that aerial viewing was their primary design purpose.
Naturalistic chains have been proposed for several plague motifs, but historical and medical reviews do not establish the biblical sequence as one documented outbreak, and no independent evidence ties it to a planetary or cosmic catastrophe.
Some comparative analyses find no clear incremental benefit from the most restrictive measures, while stronger local quasi-experiments find substantial transmission reductions. Because voluntary behavior, policy bundles and endogeneity are difficult to separate, the broad incremental effect remains uncertain.
Bench and clinical testing found that ear candles did not generate meaningful negative pressure and did not remove earwax; candle wax could instead be deposited into the ear. The visible residue inside a burned candle is therefore not reliable evidence that material was extracted from the ear.