Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe
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A hierarchical Bayesian analysis of European second-wave data estimated that business closures, education closures and gathering bans reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission, although estimated effects were model-dependent and smaller than in the first wave.
Relevant counter-evidence to a universal zero-effect interpretation, but it cannot cleanly isolate every component of a stringent lockdown package.